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Abbiasov, T (2021) Essays in Urban Economics, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Asgari, S (2016) Modeling construction competitive bidding: An agent-based approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Chang, H-H (2002) N-dimensional construction management information system (NDCON): System design and performance modeling through the zero -buffered project management philosophy, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Chen, S-M (2002) Intelligent scheduling model and multi-dimensional CM information system, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Chiara, N (2006) Real option methods for improving economic risk management in infrastructure project finance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Fitch, G J (2019) System dynamics models for the valuation of real options in infrastructure investments, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Gerstenberger, A J (2021) Modeling the likelihood of construction incidents using public data, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Teachers College, Columbia University.
Gocmen, F C (2014) Infrastructure scaling and pricing, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
He, Y (2006) Earthquake loss and risk estimation of buildings by Monte Carlo simulation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Hogan, D B (1998) Modeling construction cost performance: A comprehensive approach using statistical, artificial neural network and simulation methods, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Kokkaew, N (2010) Risk flexibility analysis in infrastructure project finance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: flexibility; uncertainty; critical path method; feedback; financing; project finance; risk analysis; infrastructure project; project appraisal; project manager
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: https://www.proquest.com/docview/859124206
- Abstract:
Successful implementation of infrastructure project financing depends on how risk is approached by the Sponsors and the Financiers. Construction completion and demand uncertainties are particularly important risks in infrastructure funded using project financing. One possible way to deal with these uncertainties is to implement a collection of flexibilities into projects in a way that mitigates risk to an acceptable level, and enhances project economics when uncertainty reveals to be favorable. Many recent studies have focused on individual flexibility rather than on a collection of flexibilities. Several risk analysis frameworks can perform a quantitative risk analysis in the construction and operation phases. However, they assume the construction period to be deterministic, neglecting the repercussions of completion delay on operational phase risks, such as revenue risk. Moreover, current models of completion risk analysis ignore project managers' ability to react to negative events. These shortcomings provide an opportunity for the research to (1) explore methods for capturing flexibility values into the analysis and (2) develop an integrated risk analysis framework for valuing a project with a collection of flexibilities. This research presents a theoretical framework of Risk Flexibility Analysis (RFA) that combines construction risk analysis with operational risk analysis. The RFA provides a systematic, flexible approach to valuing a project with a collection of flexibilities, which is presented using a networking approach. In addition, it is capable of capturing interactive values among the flexibilities in a collection. Within the RFA framework, a novel approach for modeling construction completion risk is developed by combining the Stochastic Critical Path Method with Envelope Method (SCP-EM). The SCP-EM method can model the option-like feature of management feedback reactions during construction in a straightforward fashion. A BOT toll road project illustrates the application of the RFA. The results show that certain collections of flexibilities provide additional values created by interactions among flexibilities in the collection. The framework of the RFA can be incorporated into current software applications for infrastructure project appraisals, and applied to other projects similar settings to PPP infrastructure projects. Furthermore, the analytical tool SCP-EM can be used for completion risk analysis of any type of projects in which management feedback is assumed to occur during project execution.
Li, W (1995) Benefit and cost analysis: Three-dimensional computer models with integrated databases in the management of construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Lu, Z (2018) Feasibility assessment framework for financing public-private partnership infrastructure projects through asset-backed security, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Silver, M L (1981) Craft production: Work and alienation in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Song, X (2013) The application of insurance as a risk management tool for alternative dispute resolution (ADR) implementation in construction disputes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Sturts, C S (2001) Value-bidding: An integrative approach utilizing conjoint analysis and classical bidding theory, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Subsomboon, K (2004) A procurement and material management (PMM) system based on the fully integrated and automated project process (FIAPP), Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Sun, W (2023) A self-localized smart hardhat system for construction 4.0, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Tavakolan, M (2011) Development of construction projects scheduling with evolutionary algorithms, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Teferra, K (2012) Developments in the theory and applications of the variability response function concept, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Ucbenli, C (2010) A bargaining mechanism with incomplete information and its application in trilateral BOT negotiations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Unsal, H I (2010) Modeling the hold-up problem and absorptive capacity of project networks, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Wang, W (2010) Multivariate stochastic copula-based deterioration models in infrastructure economic risk management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.